There’s a scruffy interchange with Elie Ayache taking place in this comment thread (conducted on the side of Ayache with impeccable grace). Reaching a state of minimal competence in this conversation is not going to be easy. In case others are inspired to scale the same daunting intellectual cliffs, I’ve rounded up some preliminary links.
The main archive of his writings is here.
On Elie Ayache’s main work, The Blank Swan, EA himself refers to two reviews, in the NYT, and The Hindu. (The former is suggestive of complete incomprehension, the latter makes a more convincing impression of at least tenuous understanding.)
‘The Medium of Contingency’, a philosophical essay in which Ayache outlines his basic thesis, can be found here.
Ayache’s work is the place where Speculative Realism (especially Meillassoux) intersects with economic reality. From an alternative perspective, it is an extreme ‘radicalization’ of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s critique of Gaussian market modeling.
In describing The Blank Swan, Ayache summarizes its argument as “… placing price before probability and absolute contingency before possibility.” Construed in more literary-philosophical terms, this amounts to “… a reconstruction of the market of contingent claims in the realm of writing and difference instead of identity and delimitation of states.”
This blog holds applied Bayesian (subjective probabilistic) inference to be the unsurpassable scheme for capitalistic rationality, or risk-processing, in general, as most lucidly evidenced in financial speculation. When Ayache claims to have exceeded such thinking, to arrive at a practical (and even algorithmic) grasp of absolute contingency, UF‘s initial response can only be highly skeptical. Currently such reservations are being sustained only as primitive ‘priors’. In other words, this intellectual innovation looks, obscurely, like a very bad bet.