End of an Era?

Tyler Cowan expects a phase-change in Chinese development (with video).

“Imagine about 10% a year growth for almost 35 years — that has transformed everything.” But the ‘low-hanging fruit’, he argues, is now gone. Deep and prolonged recession could be in prospect, but the medium-term prospect — based on massive (and durable) investment in human capital — remains unambiguously positive.

“Perhaps the greatest danger is capital flight …” which could easily go nonlinear.

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