Phase Change (+1)

The Credit Suisse Research Institute forecasts that by 2030 the Chinese capital market will have risen to become the second largest in the world (overtaking Japan). Business Insider reports:

In a new report entitled “Emerging Capital Markets: The Road to 2030,” the Institute estimates China’s equity market capitalization will grow 15.6 percent a year to reach $53.6 trillion between now and 2030, a thirteen-fold increase from today’s levels. It sees similar growth in the corporate bond market, to $31.9 trillion (an eleven-fold increase), as well as the sovereign bond market, to $12.3 trillion (eight-fold). In that event, China would be second only to the U.S. in each of the three major asset classes. What’s more, the country could also account for 55 percent of all emerging market debt underwriting fees and 70 percent of equity fees between now and then – a total of some $159 billion. “There is no way around it: China is the most important place for the development of capital markets,” says Markus Stierli, Head of Fundamental Micro Themes in Credit Suisse’s Private Banking and Wealth Management division. “It’s the place everyone’s watching.”

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